Closing Line Value CLV Explained Knowledge base

Let’s take a bettor wagering a $1,000 betting stake at +250 odds, and by the time the line is closed, the quotes for the same event have dropped down to the +190 level. Now we have that the bettor is able to win $600 more than with the “last moment” betting. Effective bankroll management is the bedrock of sustainable betting. By determining the appropriate stake sizes based on your total bankroll and the perceived value of your bets, you mitigate the risks of severe losses. This discipline ensures that positive CLV can translate into long-term profitability rather than short-lived gains. Bettors securing consistent +CLV tend to outperform those with -CLV in the long run.

As the sportsbook takes bets from sharp/respected groups, they move the line based on bets placed. Closing line value, often abbreviated as CLV, is a key concept in sports betting. It’s a measure of how much better or worse the odds you bet at are compared to where they end up at the start of the game, aka the close. With the above, I hope to have convinced you of the importance of the closing line in betting. I feel many punters can greatly improve their results (which for most translates simply to losing less) by understanding this concept and tracking their CLV.

Understanding the closing line value can provide insights into your betting acumen, showing whether you have an edge over other bettors or the bookmaker. To maximize success in sports betting, leveraging advanced tools like CLV calculators can make a significant difference. Large wagers from sharp bettors or syndicates can signal insider knowledge, prompting bookmakers to adjust their lines accordingly. High volumes on one side of a bet can lead to substantial line shifts as sportsbooks aim to offset potential liabilities. In this example, placing a bet at -105 yields a positive CLV since the closing line moved to -115, showcasing that the initial bet was well-timed and at favorable odds. Accumulating positive CLV over time is a hallmark of a successful sports betting strategy.

​​CLV in Efficient Markets vs Inefficient Markets

Closing line value is absolutely one of the important ways to win at sports betting. Stay ahead with early research and predictions, and don’t be afraid to act fast on valuable insights. Optimize your bets using sports betting analytics like these and many more, available on our platform at hofbets.com or by downloading our new iOS app here. Always remember, a positive CLV reflects good betting acumen, while a negative one indicates a potential overvalued bet.

Note that betting using the Kelly criterion (a proportional staking strategy) will improve your profits compared to flat staking. Flat profit (or unit profit) is used when comparing users, betting systems or tipsters against each other, without taking bankroll size and betting strategy into account. It’s the profit you would have achieved if you used a flat staking strategy (also called fixed staking). This means betting one “unit” (1% of your bankroll) at each bet. A unit is different for every user, it can be €10 or €100 – since it’s a relative number you can easily compare the results.

• Although it can give you a good starting point, tracking CLV is not necessary for long-term success in betting.
• Without tracking CLV, you may persist with ineffective strategies, mistakenly attributing winnings to skill when it might be luck.
• He uses the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool to identify value against the current no-vig fair odds.
• Despite being incredibly user-friendly, it doesn’t sacrifice any of the more advanced features that experienced arbers have come to expect.

Understanding the Concept of “Closing Line Value” in Sports Wagering

Of course, you could have increased that if you focused on larger value bets. I have placed about 4500 value bets, while I have almost quadrupled my initial deposit by now, in less than 2 months. RebelBetting has put together an outstanding arbitrage betting software package. It has a simple, uncrowded interface, but is packed with all of the necessities for serious arbitrage betting. Despite being incredibly user-friendly, it doesn’t sacrifice any of the more advanced features that experienced arbers dafabet app have come to expect. In general, the bookies that open first are the ones who are more confident in their ability to make a decent line.

Plug that into our Odds Converter Calculator and we get a 66.1% implied probability. There are also different ways of figuring out if your CLV bet is a great positive EV wager. One simple way is to take the difference between the implied probability of your bet compared to the implied probability of the closing line. But did you get -2.5 on Temple basketball in November in a non-conference matchup? Maybe you beat the closing line, but you’ll never know with certainty if it’s a good CLV because early season college hoops is an inefficient market. This metric is integral to all sorts of picks and parlays, giving a significant insight into whether you are betting intelligently over time, not just focusing on a single outcome.

The closing line serves as an important indicator of the effectiveness of the betting strategy and analytical skills of the bettor. Overall, beating the closing line is crucial to being a winning bettor, and you should be well over 50% beating CLV on the OddsJam Bet Tracker. Alex is starting with an edge at -102, which was an outlier compared to other sportsbooks, so he’s still confident in that bet. The closing line is widely considered the most accurate estimate of a game’s true probabilities (especially in very liquid markets like NFL sides). The closer to game time you place a bet, the less likely you are to achieve/maximize CLV (unless it’s a unique example like injury news).

Creating Great Marketing Videos with Free Online Editing Tools

Of course, it will do so at a different price in order to make some profit on those transactions. You can see what the vig for a market is when you calculate how much you are going to lose if you bet on all possible outcomes. You have bought and sold a possible outcome ensuring the same return for you regardless of how the game ends. CLV is essentially a measure of the odds you secured when placing your bet in comparison to the odds at which the market eventually closed. A successful bet is one where you managed to beat the closing line, getting better odds than those available at the close of betting.